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Emerging-market indicators.

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Emerging-market indicators


Overview

In Singapore, industrial-production growth accelerated to 11.8% in the year to August. In the Philippines, industrial output declined by 1.1% in the year to July, after falling by a revised 5.1% in the year to June.

Consumer-price inflation in South Africa picked up to 3.9% in the year to August. The 12-month current-account deficit edged up to $8.6 billion in the second quarter.

Peru's 12-month trade surplus rose to $4.0 billion in July. Colombia's increased to $1.8 billion in June.

Foreign direct investment

After falling for three consecutive years since their 2001 peak, inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) finally turned up last year, according to the World Investment Report by the United Nations Committee on Trade and Development. World FDI inflows amounted to $648 billion, 2% higher than a year ago. Asia led the upswing, mainly due to new greenfield investments in China and India. The region attracted inflows worth 72% more than the previous year. Not all developed countries were as fortunate. While America and Britain experienced substantial increases in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, FDI into the euro area's largest economies suffered, partly due to the large loan repayments made by foreign affiliates to their parent firms.

Economy

Legend for chart:
A -
B - % change on year ago GDP
C - % change on year ago Industrial production
D - % change on year ago Consumer prices
E - Latest 12 months, $bn Trade balance
F - Latest 12 months, $bn Current account
G - Foreign reserves* $bn, latest

      A                B              C           D
                       E              F           G

China               +9.5 Q2      +16.0 Aug    +1.3 Aug
                  +93.1 Aug     +68.7 2004   711.0 Jun

Hong Kong           +6.8 Q2        -0.1 Q2    +1.3 Aug
                   -9.7 Aug       +18.5 Q1   122.3 Aug

India               +7.0 Q1       +6.7 Jul    +4.1 Jul
                  -34.7 Aug        -6.4 Q1   133.6 Aug

Indonesia           +5.5 Q2       +7.3 Jul    +8.3 Aug
                  +27.8 Jul        +7.8 Q1    31.0 Jul

Malaysia            +4.1 Q2       +0.9 Jul    +3.7 Aug
                  +23.6 Jul       +16.7 Q1    78.0 Jul

Philippines         +4.8 Q2       -1.1 Jul    +7.2 Aug
                   -0.7 Jul       +2.9 Mar    15.3 Aug

Singapore           +5.2 Q2      +11.8 Aug    +0.7 Aug
                  +17.4 Aug       +32.5 Q2   116.4 Aug

South Korea         +3.3 Q2       +5.5 Aug    +2.0 Aug
                  +26.0 Aug      +21.3 Jul   206.6 Aug

Taiwan              +3.0 Q2       -1.1 Jul    +3.6 Aug
                   +1.7 Aug       +13.3 Q2   254.1 Aug

Thailand            +4.4 Q2       +4.7 Jul    +5.6 Aug
                   -7.3 Jul       -2.2 Jul    47.3 Jul

Argentina          +10.1 Q2       +6.0 Jul    +9.7 Aug
                  +11.2 Jul        +2.8 Q1    24.4 Jul

Brazil              +3.9 Q2       +0.5 Jul    +6.0 Aug
                  +40.1 Aug      +12.5 Aug    54.6 Aug

Chile               +6.5 Q2       +4.4 Jul    +3.0 Aug
                   +8.7 Aug        +0.6 Q2    15.8 Aug

Colombia            +5.3 Q2       +3.0 Jun    +4.9 Aug
                   +1.8 Jun        -0.8 Q1    14.9 Aug

Mexico              +3.1 Q2       -1.1 Jul    +4.0 Aug
                   -9.6 Jul        -8.4 Q2    66.4 Jul

Peru               +4.9 Jul       +4.6 Jul    +1.2 Aug
                   +4.0 Jul        +0.4 Q2    12.8 Aug

Venezuela          +11.1 Q2       +6.2 Jun   +14.8 Aug
                   +24.7 Q2       +17.7 Q2    23.1 Jun

Egypt               +4.7 Q4   +3.3 2004[T]    +4.7 Jun
                    -9.5 Q1        +4.4 Q1    18.5 Jul

Israel              +4.8 Q2       +3.6 Jul    +1.6 Aug
                   -7.7 Aug        +1.3 Q2    27.8 Aug

South Africa        +4.5 Q2       +2.4 Jul    +3.9 Aug
                   -2.3 Jul        -8.6 Q2    17.2 Aug

Czech Republic      +5.1 Q2      +11.2 Jul    +1.7 Aug
                   +1.3 Jul        -4.1 Q2    30.2 Aug

Hungary             +4.1 Q2       +8.4 Jul    +3.6 Aug
                   -3.4 Jul        -9.2 Q1    18.0 Aug

Poland              +2.8 Q2       +4.6 Aug    +1.6 Aug
                   -3.3 Jul       +0.3 Jul    39.4 Jul

Russia              +6.1 Q2       +3.4 Aug   +12.4 Aug
                 +110.6 Jul       +69.2 Q1   146.0 Aug

Turkey              +4.2 Q2       -0.3 Jul    +7.9 Aug
                  -38.9 Jul      -20.0 Jul    42.9 Jul

*Excluding gold, except Singapore; IMF definition. [T]Year ending June.

Financial markets

Legend for chart:
A -
B - Currency units per $ Sep 28th
C - Currency units per $ year ago
D - Currency units per £ Sep 28th
E - Interest rates short-term % a year
F - Stockmarkets Sep 28th
G - % change on one week
H - % change on Dec 31st 2004 in local currency
I - % change on Dec 31st 2004 in $ terms

    A                  B          C         D
                       E          F
                       G          H         I

China                8.09        8.28     14.3
                     4.38     1,189.0
                     -4.7       -10.6     -8.6

Hong Kong            7.76        7.80     13.7
                     4.12    15,221.5
                      nil        +7.0     +7.1

India                44.0        46.0     77.5
                     5.10     8,606.0
                     +1.4       +30.3    +28.8

Indonesia          10,375       9,186   18,276
                    12.70     1,027.9
                     -1.6        +2.8     -8.1

Malaysia             3.77        3.80     6.64
                     2.92       924.5
                     +0.2        +1.9     +2.7

Philippines          56.1        56.3     98.7
                     8.13     1,976.1
                     +0.9        +8.4     +8.6

Singapore            1.69        1.69     2.98
                     2.34     2,301.8
                     +0.1       +11.4     +7.4

South Korea         1,038       1,153    1,828
                     3.94     1,228.6
                     +2.7       +37.1    +36.8

Taiwan               33.3        33.9     58.6
                     1.55     5,931.4
                     -2.2        -3.4     -8.0

Thailand             41.2        41.5     72.5
                     3.90       723.2
                     +0.3        +8.2     +2.2

Argentina            2.91        2.99     5.13
                     6.69     1,687.8
                     +1.7       +22.7    +25.2

Brazil               2.25        2.86     3.96
                    19.51    31,317.0
                     +1.6       +19.5    +41.2

Chile                 539         607      949
                     3.96    10,014.0
                     -0.5       +11.7    +15.3

Colombia            2,294       2,597    4,041
                     6.88     6,790.6
                     -0.5       +56.3    +60.3

Mexico               10.9        11.4     19.1
                     9.02    15,869.3
                     +0.9       +22.8    +26.1

Peru                 3.32        3.34     5.85
                     2.98     5,031.4
                     +1.7       +35.6    +33.8

Venezuela        2,651[S]    2,535[S]    4,670
                    11.01    20,497.2
                     -4.8       -31.6    -33.4

Egypt                5.76        6.24    10.15
                     9.19    48,113.1
                     +7.3       +95.7   +106.1

Israel               4.58        4.48     8.07
                     3.73       749.2
                     +1.8       +16.4     +9.7

South Africa         6.43        6.44     11.3
                     7.05    16,638.4
                     +1.2       +31.5    +15.1

Czech Republic       24.6        25.7     43.3
                     1.80     1,451.6
                     +1.3       +40.7    +27.9

Hungary               207         201      365
                     5.96    23,078.5
                     +0.6       +56.5    +36.4

Poland               3.26        3.55     5.75
                     4.45    33,384.7
                     -0.4       +25.3    +15.1

Russia               28.5        29.2     50.3
                    13.00   988.3[tt]
                     +2.9       +65.7    +60.9

Turkey               1.35        1.51     2.38
                    16.00    32,745.0
                     -3.3       +31.1    +31.0

EM (MSCI)*           1.00        1.00     1.76
                       na       650.4
                      nil       +20.0    +20.0

EMBI+[T]             1.00        1.00     1.76
                       na       360.1
                     +0.1        +9.3     +9.3

*Emerging Mkts Free. [T]J.P. Morgan Chase's Emerging Mkts Bond Index Plus. [tt]In $ terms. [S]Floating exchange rate.

Sources: National statistics offices, central banks and stock exchanges; Thomson Datastream; Reuters; WM/Reuters; Hong Kong Monetary Authority; Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy; Bank Leumi Le-Israel; Standard Bank Group.

GRAPH: Foreign direct investment: World FDI inflows, $trn (Source: UNCTAD)

GRAPH: Foreign direct investment: FDI inflows, $bn, 2004 (Source: UNCTAD)



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